On February 26, NVIDIA announced record quarterly revenues with a 78% increase from the previous year. It beat analysts' expectations and issued relatively positive forward guidance, yet its stock still fell by 8.5% the next day.
Similarly, S&P 500 companies reported 18% year-over-year earnings growth for Q4 2024, but the index is down 2% for the year. Since investors' primary concern is future earnings growth, the past quickly becomes irrelevant. As a result, even positive reports can lead to market declines when investors ask, "What have you done for me lately?"
This counterintuitive quirk makes investing frustrating, but the underlying economics make sense. When you buy a stock, you are only entitled to future earnings--last year's earnings went to the seller. So if the prospect for future earnings growth declines, so will the stock's price.
Investors are already wary of high US market valuations (forward 12-mo P/E is 20.7 versus 18.3 10-yr average), so they are looking for any potential weakness in earnings growth. Add tariffs and sweeping federal layoffs to that uneasiness and you get a selloff.
Notably, international developed markets have a much lower valuation (forward 12-mo P/E is 14.3), and the MSCI EAFE index (international developed) is up 11% for the year.
Fortunately, the market can reverse just as quickly. In 2020, the S&P 500 went from down 30% in March to up 16% by year-end. If unemployment remains low and earnings continue to grow, the market can recover and return to positive territory, especially if the White House can find a compromise on tariffs.
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Josh Norris is an Investment Advisory Representative of LeFleur Financial. Josh can be reached at josh@lefleurfinancial.com.
Josh Norris, CPA, CFP, CFA is the managing member of LeFleur Financial, a wealth management and tax advisory firm