In 2016, sports personality Max Kellerman boldly predicted, “Tom Brady’s just about done. It could be his next game, it could be a year from now, but he is going to fall off a cliff.” Brady then played another six years, winning three more Super Bowls.

That’s a tough call to live down. Kellerman’s prediction has since caused him endless ridicule and internet trolling. Likewise, if investors predicting a market drawdown decide to sit on the sidelines, they could pay the ultimate price with their portfolio–lower returns.

In a recent study by Putnam Investments, investors who put $10,000 in the S&P 500 on December 31, 2007 had over $35,000 by December 31, 2022. However, investors who missed the best ten trading days during that period only had a little over $16,000–less than half their disciplined counterparts.

So when the market goes up, it really goes up. And if you’re on the sidelines, while you may sidestep a few drawdowns, you are more likely to miss out on big market gains. Over the long term, these timing missteps can deeply impact long term returns. In other words, it pays to stay invested.

But investors are nervous, and reasonably so. According to economists polled by the Wall Street Journal, there’s still a 54% chance of a recession in the next twelve months. The primary concern is that the cumulative effect of recent credit tightening may not have fully materialized yet in the economy.

However, investors have anticipated a recession for months. Since October 2022, the market has endured: continued Fed rate hikes, the collapse of FTX , a regional bank crisis, a debt ceiling crisis, and two consecutive quarterly declines in S&P 500 earnings. Yet, the S&P 500 is still up over 20%. So, again, it pays to stay invested.

Not every bull market is a Tom Brady–this one very well may fade after a reasonable run like Peyton Manning. But you can’t win if you don’t play, and we know that the market rewards long term investors.

Josh Norris is an Investment Advisory Representative of LeFleur Financial. Josh can be reached at josh@lefleurfinancial.com.

Josh Norris, CPA, CFP, CFA is the managing member of LeFleur Financial, a wealth management and tax advisory firm.